Independent stores in Macon County head into the holiday season with online sales still growing faster than sales at physical stores, and with the costs of trucking in inventory and mailing orders well above last year.
Small Business Saturday, the Saturday after Thanksgiving, falls Nov. 28 this year. American Express, which started the promotion in 2010, estimated, based on a consumer survey, that Americans spent about $18 billion at independent retailers and restaurants on the day in 2025. About 68 cents of every dollar spent at a small business stays in the local community, according to research cited by American Express.
Sales at nonstore retailers, the Census Bureau category that includes online sellers, were 8.2 percent higher in September than a year earlier, according to the bureau's advance estimates released Oct. 15. Total retail sales rose 6.2 percent. In a Sept. 3 forecast, Bain & Company projected that online and other nonstore holiday sales will grow 9 percent and in-store sales 2.5 percent.
Stores still carry most of the season. Bain said physical stores account for about 70 percent of holiday sales. Mastercard forecast in September that in-store holiday sales will rise 3.9 percent, which it said would be the best showing for physical retail in four years, Chain Store Age reported.
Several categories where local shops compete were up from a year earlier in September, the Census Bureau reported: sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores, 9.6 percent; clothing stores, 5 percent; furniture and home furnishings stores, 4.9 percent; and building materials and garden supply stores, a group that includes hardware stores, 4.5 percent. The figures are not adjusted for inflation.
Costs are climbing. Diesel, which fuels the trucks that deliver inventory, averaged about $6.10 a gallon in Missouri on Oct. 27, up from about $3.38 a year earlier, according to AAA. For shops that mail orders, postage was 12.7 percent higher in September than a year earlier and delivery services were 16.2 percent higher, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Fuel costs hit small-town stores harder, said EJ Fleischmann, chief communications officer of the Midwest Retail & Grocery Alliance, which represents independent grocers and retailers. "Fuel costs have a major impact across the board, from the farm to the truck to the refrigerated case," Fleischmann said in a written statement. "Independent and rural retailers often feel that impact more, because they operate on thin margins and frequently serve as the only grocery option in their communities."
Shoppers have been buying less per trip but shopping more often over the past year, Fleischmann said, and the alliance expects them to be more financially cautious heading into the holidays. Grocery prices are up 1.8 percent from a year ago, below overall inflation of 3.7 percent, Fleischmann said. Both figures match the Bureau of Labor Statistics' September consumer price index.
"We're seeing many consumers take advantage of the rewards and shopping perks independent grocers offer," Fleischmann said.
Area businesses report a pullback. In its Beige Book released Oct. 14, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, whose district includes Chariton and Linn counties, said consumer spending "declined modestly across most retail sectors" and that fuel prices weighed on purchases. The St. Louis Fed, whose district includes Macon County, described spending as mixed.
Tariff relief has been slow to reach shelves. The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the administration's emergency tariffs Feb. 20, but refunds go to the companies that paid the duties, often importers rather than the small stores that stock their goods. About 75 percent of businesses surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta that had received refunds were keeping at least part of their refunds as cash, Supply Chain Dive reported Sept. 24. Grocers have "not seen a direct change in grocery prices from the Supreme Court's ruling," Fleischmann said.
The Macon Area Chamber of Commerce and four Macon retailers, Wavering's Ben Franklin, D-Zines by T Flowers & Gifts, C.A. Shoush Company, and Helton, were asked by email about their holiday plans. Chariton Media Group did not receive a response in time for publication.
<!– SOURCES BY GRAF (not copy)
- AmEx: sources/amex-sbs-2025-results-rendered.txt (Dec. 17, 2025 release; Teneo survey; 68-cent figure)
- Census Sept. advance (Oct. 15, 2026, CB26-165), Table 2 Sep 2026 vs Sep 2025: nonstore 8.2, retail 6.2, sporting 9.6, clothing 5.0, furniture 4.9, building mat. 4.5: sources/r5/marts_current.pdf
- Bain Sept. 3: sources/bain-holiday-2026-prn.txt. Mastercard Sept. 23 via Chain Store Age: sources/chainstoreage-mastercard-holiday-2026.txt.
- AAA MO diesel Oct. 27: sources/aaa-missouri-gas-2026-10-27.html ($6.1010 / year ago $3.3810)
- BLS CPI Sept. 2026 via BLS public API (sources/r5/bls-api.json): all items NSA 336.94/324.8 = 3.7; food at home 321.758/316.042 = 1.8; postage 12.7; delivery 16.2 (CUUR0000SEEC01/02)
- Beige Book Oct. 14: sources/r5/beigebook202610-kansas-city.htm, beigebook202610-st-louis.htm
- Tariffs: sources/ap-tariff-refunds.html; sources/yahoo-atlantafed-tariff-refunds.html (Sept. 24)
- MRGA: inbox-pulls/2026-10-27-ej-fleischmann-0816.md (verbatim)
- No-response: desk/outstanding-source-asks.md, Macon Chamber deadline used Oct. 21 (reminded Oct. 19); Wavering, D-Zines, Shoush, Helton deadline used Oct. 23. Westlake bounced (no line). MRA Overfelt retired/referred (no line).
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